Industry: N/A | Current Spot Price: $118.54
Moats, margins, and financial health stress-test index.
Risk level of value trap traps, structural declines, or debt strain.
Consensus fair value margin of safety across all active models.
| Valuation Model Variant | Price Target | Upside / Downside% | Model Confidence% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Power Value | $12.08 | -89.81% | 75.0% |
| Bayesian DCF | $13.87 | -88.30% | 74.3% |
| Markov DDM | $20.47 | -82.73% | 65.0% |
| Dynamic Net Asset Value | $15.78 | -86.69% | 60.4% |
| First Chicago | $78.31 | -33.94% | 65.0% |
| EROIC Spread Model | $15.04 | -87.31% | 69.7% |
| Machine Learning RIV | $64.14 | -45.89% | 60.4% |
| Regime Cross model | $43.39 | -63.40% | 51.1% |
| Sentiment SOTP | $36.53 | -69.18% | 51.1% |
| CUCE Ensemble Model | $39.88 | -66.36% | 11.3% |
| FTNN Topology Model | $108.53 | -8.45% | 7.2% |
| RCMH-DCF Variant | $32.41 | -72.66% | 60.4% |
Determining if Walmart Inc. (WMT) is worth buying in 2026 requires contrasting its current market spot price of $118.54 with our fundamental intrinsic value targets. Our quantitative models suggest that the consensus fair value upside for WMT sits at -60.8% across active valuation models. If you prioritize conservative baseline asset capitalizations, the zero-growth Earnings Power Value (EPV) floor of $12.08 represents a strong baseline safety net. On the other hand, the 10,000-simulation Bayesian DCF target of $13.87 reflects the fair value accounting for margin progression and long-term cash flow compound potential.
With a Quality of Company (QOC) score of 9.45/10 and a Value Trap Score of 6.0/100, WMT's financial risk metrics provide deep structural insights. A Value Trap Score of 6.0/100 suggests that the company is currently safely insulated from immediate financial distress, operational structural decline, or a permanent loss of capital, debt distress, or structural operational decline. Meanwhile, the durable moat score (QOC) of 9.45/10 indicates the level of physical, structural, or brand competitive advantage the company retains. At $118.54, the margin of safety should be carefully compared to these fundamental indicators.