Industry: N/A | Current Spot Price: $440.36
Moats, margins, and financial health stress-test index.
Risk level of value trap traps, structural declines, or debt strain.
Consensus fair value margin of safety across all active models.
| Valuation Model Variant | Price Target | Upside / Downside% | Model Confidence% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Power Value | $9.91 | -97.75% | 64.7% |
| Bayesian DCF | $40.02 | -90.91% | 64.1% |
| Markov DDM | $4.14 | -98.90% | 5.0% |
| Dynamic Net Asset Value | $10.70 | -97.57% | 52.1% |
| First Chicago | $86.52 | -80.35% | 56.1% |
| EROIC Spread Model | $60.91 | -86.17% | 60.1% |
| Machine Learning RIV | $39.69 | -90.99% | 44.3% |
| Regime Cross model | $19.79 | -95.51% | 44.1% |
| Sentiment SOTP | $27.94 | -93.66% | 44.1% |
| CUCE Ensemble Model | $64.02 | -85.46% | 3.9% |
| FTNN Topology Model | $320.11 | -27.31% | 12.1% |
| RCMH-DCF Variant | $25.80 | -94.14% | 52.1% |
Determining if Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is worth buying in 2026 requires contrasting its current market spot price of $440.36 with our fundamental intrinsic value targets. Our quantitative models suggest that the consensus fair value upside for TSLA sits at -80.5% across active valuation models. If you prioritize conservative baseline asset capitalizations, the zero-growth Earnings Power Value (EPV) floor of $9.91 represents a strong baseline safety net. On the other hand, the 10,000-simulation Bayesian DCF target of $40.02 reflects the fair value accounting for margin progression and long-term cash flow compound potential.
With a Quality of Company (QOC) score of 8.63/10 and a Value Trap Score of 18.0/100, TSLA's financial risk metrics provide deep structural insights. A Value Trap Score of 18.0/100 suggests that the company is currently safely insulated from immediate financial distress, operational structural decline, or a permanent loss of capital, debt distress, or structural operational decline. Meanwhile, the durable moat score (QOC) of 8.63/10 indicates the level of physical, structural, or brand competitive advantage the company retains. At $440.36, the margin of safety should be carefully compared to these fundamental indicators.