Industry: N/A | Current Spot Price: $212.60
Moats, margins, and financial health stress-test index.
Risk level of value trap traps, structural declines, or debt strain.
Consensus fair value margin of safety across all active models.
| Valuation Model Variant | Price Target | Upside / Downside% | Model Confidence% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Power Value | $43.38 | -79.60% | 79.1% |
| Bayesian DCF | $46.21 | -78.27% | 70.9% |
| Markov DDM | $17.09 | -91.96% | 62.0% |
| Dynamic Net Asset Value | $4.28 | -97.99% | 57.6% |
| First Chicago | $127.52 | -40.02% | 62.0% |
| EROIC Spread Model | $44.24 | -79.19% | 66.5% |
| Machine Learning RIV | $57.69 | -72.86% | 57.6% |
| Regime Cross model | $94.34 | -55.63% | 48.7% |
| Sentiment SOTP | $57.56 | -72.93% | 48.7% |
| CUCE Ensemble Model | $74.27 | -65.07% | 11.8% |
| FTNN Topology Model | $191.92 | -9.73% | 6.9% |
| RCMH-DCF Variant | $95.30 | -55.17% | 57.6% |
Determining if NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is worth buying in 2026 requires contrasting its current market spot price of $212.60 with our fundamental intrinsic value targets. Our quantitative models suggest that the consensus fair value upside for NVDA sits at -61.4% across active valuation models. If you prioritize conservative baseline asset capitalizations, the zero-growth Earnings Power Value (EPV) floor of $43.38 represents a strong baseline safety net. On the other hand, the 10,000-simulation Bayesian DCF target of $46.21 reflects the fair value accounting for margin progression and long-term cash flow compound potential.
With a Quality of Company (QOC) score of 10.0/10 and a Value Trap Score of 35.0/100, NVDA's financial risk metrics provide deep structural insights. A Value Trap Score of 35.0/100 suggests that the company is currently safely insulated from immediate financial distress, operational structural decline, or a permanent loss of capital, debt distress, or structural operational decline. Meanwhile, the durable moat score (QOC) of 10.0/10 indicates the level of physical, structural, or brand competitive advantage the company retains. At $212.60, the margin of safety should be carefully compared to these fundamental indicators.