Industry: N/A | Current Spot Price: $87.35
Moats, margins, and financial health stress-test index.
Risk level of value trap traps, structural declines, or debt strain.
Consensus fair value margin of safety across all active models.
| Valuation Model Variant | Price Target | Upside / Downside% | Model Confidence% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Power Value | $29.49 | -66.24% | 70.0% |
| Bayesian DCF | $16.14 | -81.53% | 62.8% |
| Markov DDM | $240.48 | 175.31% | 30.2% |
| First Chicago | $121.06 | 38.59% | 54.9% |
| EROIC Spread Model | $24.03 | -72.49% | 58.8% |
| Machine Learning RIV | $48.97 | -43.94% | 43.3% |
| Regime Cross model | $51.08 | -41.52% | 43.1% |
| Sentiment SOTP | $37.30 | -57.30% | 43.1% |
| CUCE Ensemble Model | $53.16 | -39.14% | 4.3% |
| FTNN Topology Model | $81.55 | -6.65% | 5.4% |
| RCMH-DCF Variant | $35.18 | -59.72% | 51.0% |
Determining if Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is worth buying in 2026 requires contrasting its current market spot price of $87.35 with our fundamental intrinsic value targets. Our quantitative models suggest that the consensus fair value upside for NFLX sits at -21.3% across active valuation models. If you prioritize conservative baseline asset capitalizations, the zero-growth Earnings Power Value (EPV) floor of $29.49 represents a strong baseline safety net. On the other hand, the 10,000-simulation Bayesian DCF target of $16.14 reflects the fair value accounting for margin progression and long-term cash flow compound potential.
With a Quality of Company (QOC) score of 10.0/10 and a Value Trap Score of 22.0/100, NFLX's financial risk metrics provide deep structural insights. A Value Trap Score of 22.0/100 suggests that the company is currently safely insulated from immediate financial distress, operational structural decline, or a permanent loss of capital, debt distress, or structural operational decline. Meanwhile, the durable moat score (QOC) of 10.0/10 indicates the level of physical, structural, or brand competitive advantage the company retains. At $87.35, the margin of safety should be carefully compared to these fundamental indicators.