Industry: N/A | Current Spot Price: $412.67
Moats, margins, and financial health stress-test index.
Risk level of value trap traps, structural declines, or debt strain.
Consensus fair value margin of safety across all active models.
| Valuation Model Variant | Price Target | Upside / Downside% | Model Confidence% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Power Value | $140.41 | -65.98% | 75.9% |
| Bayesian DCF | $188.43 | -54.34% | 68.0% |
| Markov DDM | $66.81 | -83.81% | 59.5% |
| Dynamic Net Asset Value | $12.83 | -96.96% | 55.3% |
| First Chicago | $543.46 | 31.69% | 59.5% |
| EROIC Spread Model | $105.43 | -74.45% | 63.8% |
| Machine Learning RIV | $298.76 | -27.60% | 47.0% |
| Regime Cross model | $258.37 | -37.39% | 46.8% |
| Sentiment SOTP | $305.54 | -25.96% | 46.8% |
| CUCE Ensemble Model | $209.53 | -49.23% | 15.1% |
| FTNN Topology Model | $380.98 | -7.68% | 6.6% |
| RCMH-DCF Variant | $99.81 | -75.81% | 55.3% |
Determining if Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is worth buying in 2026 requires contrasting its current market spot price of $412.67 with our fundamental intrinsic value targets. Our quantitative models suggest that the consensus fair value upside for MSFT sits at -43.6% across active valuation models. If you prioritize conservative baseline asset capitalizations, the zero-growth Earnings Power Value (EPV) floor of $140.41 represents a strong baseline safety net. On the other hand, the 10,000-simulation Bayesian DCF target of $188.43 reflects the fair value accounting for margin progression and long-term cash flow compound potential.
With a Quality of Company (QOC) score of 10.0/10 and a Value Trap Score of 11.0/100, MSFT's financial risk metrics provide deep structural insights. A Value Trap Score of 11.0/100 suggests that the company is currently safely insulated from immediate financial distress, operational structural decline, or a permanent loss of capital, debt distress, or structural operational decline. Meanwhile, the durable moat score (QOC) of 10.0/10 indicates the level of physical, structural, or brand competitive advantage the company retains. At $412.67, the margin of safety should be carefully compared to these fundamental indicators.