Industry: N/A | Current Spot Price: $299.28
Moats, margins, and financial health stress-test index.
Risk level of value trap traps, structural declines, or debt strain.
Consensus fair value margin of safety across all active models.
| Valuation Model Variant | Price Target | Upside / Downside% | Model Confidence% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Power Value | $248.65 | -16.92% | 63.3% |
| Bayesian DCF | $190.35 | -36.40% | 28.4% |
| Markov DDM | $1,944.98 | 549.89% | 49.6% |
| First Chicago | $488.51 | 63.23% | 49.6% |
| EROIC Spread Model | $147.80 | -50.62% | 39.0% |
| Machine Learning RIV | $545.30 | 82.20% | 39.2% |
| Regime Cross model | $335.36 | 12.05% | 39.0% |
| Sentiment SOTP | $373.85 | 24.92% | 39.0% |
| CUCE Ensemble Model | $532.09 | 77.79% | 2.8% |
| FTNN Topology Model | $306.85 | 2.53% | 4.5% |
| RCMH-DCF Variant | $64.98 | -78.29% | 46.1% |
Determining if JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is worth buying in 2026 requires contrasting its current market spot price of $299.28 with our fundamental intrinsic value targets. Our quantitative models suggest that the consensus fair value upside for JPM sits at 95.9% across active valuation models. If you prioritize conservative baseline asset capitalizations, the zero-growth Earnings Power Value (EPV) floor of $248.65 represents a strong baseline safety net. On the other hand, the 10,000-simulation Bayesian DCF target of $190.35 reflects the fair value accounting for margin progression and long-term cash flow compound potential.
With a Quality of Company (QOC) score of 8.19/10 and a Value Trap Score of 22.0/100, JPM's financial risk metrics provide deep structural insights. A Value Trap Score of 22.0/100 suggests that the company is currently safely insulated from immediate financial distress, operational structural decline, or a permanent loss of capital, debt distress, or structural operational decline. Meanwhile, the durable moat score (QOC) of 8.19/10 indicates the level of physical, structural, or brand competitive advantage the company retains. At $299.28, the margin of safety should be carefully compared to these fundamental indicators.