Industry: N/A | Current Spot Price: $384.83
Moats, margins, and financial health stress-test index.
Risk level of value trap traps, structural declines, or debt strain.
Consensus fair value margin of safety across all active models.
| Valuation Model Variant | Price Target | Upside / Downside% | Model Confidence% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Power Value | $81.29 | -78.88% | 71.5% |
| Bayesian DCF | $124.29 | -67.70% | 64.1% |
| Markov DDM | $522.24 | 35.71% | 56.1% |
| Dynamic Net Asset Value | $14.63 | -96.20% | 52.1% |
| First Chicago | $294.81 | -23.39% | 56.1% |
| EROIC Spread Model | $79.36 | -79.38% | 60.1% |
| Machine Learning RIV | $269.67 | -29.93% | 52.1% |
| Regime Cross model | $203.31 | -47.17% | 44.1% |
| Sentiment SOTP | $125.70 | -67.34% | 44.1% |
| CUCE Ensemble Model | $211.10 | -45.14% | 12.7% |
| FTNN Topology Model | $350.79 | -8.85% | 6.2% |
| RCMH-DCF Variant | $106.55 | -72.31% | 52.1% |
Determining if Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is worth buying in 2026 requires contrasting its current market spot price of $384.83 with our fundamental intrinsic value targets. Our quantitative models suggest that the consensus fair value upside for GOOG sits at -44.9% across active valuation models. If you prioritize conservative baseline asset capitalizations, the zero-growth Earnings Power Value (EPV) floor of $81.29 represents a strong baseline safety net. On the other hand, the 10,000-simulation Bayesian DCF target of $124.29 reflects the fair value accounting for margin progression and long-term cash flow compound potential.
With a Quality of Company (QOC) score of 10.0/10 and a Value Trap Score of 18.0/100, GOOG's financial risk metrics provide deep structural insights. A Value Trap Score of 18.0/100 suggests that the company is currently safely insulated from immediate financial distress, operational structural decline, or a permanent loss of capital, debt distress, or structural operational decline. Meanwhile, the durable moat score (QOC) of 10.0/10 indicates the level of physical, structural, or brand competitive advantage the company retains. At $384.83, the margin of safety should be carefully compared to these fundamental indicators.