Industry: N/A | Current Spot Price: $104.18
Moats, margins, and financial health stress-test index.
Risk level of value trap traps, structural declines, or debt strain.
Consensus fair value margin of safety across all active models.
| Valuation Model Variant | Price Target | Upside / Downside% | Model Confidence% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Power Value | $121.82 | 16.93% | 69.9% |
| Bayesian DCF | $78.90 | -24.27% | 62.7% |
| Markov DDM | $37.43 | -64.07% | 54.8% |
| Dynamic Net Asset Value | $26.92 | -74.16% | 50.9% |
| First Chicago | $244.39 | 134.58% | 54.8% |
| EROIC Spread Model | $78.52 | -24.63% | 58.8% |
| Machine Learning RIV | $140.05 | 34.43% | 50.9% |
| Regime Cross model | $139.92 | 34.31% | 43.1% |
| Sentiment SOTP | $134.13 | 28.75% | 43.1% |
| CUCE Ensemble Model | $104.89 | 0.68% | 19.6% |
| FTNN Topology Model | $104.87 | 0.66% | 24.5% |
| RCMH-DCF Variant | $94.44 | -9.35% | 50.9% |
Determining if Walt Disney Company (The) (DIS) is worth buying in 2026 requires contrasting its current market spot price of $104.18 with our fundamental intrinsic value targets. Our quantitative models suggest that the consensus fair value upside for DIS sits at 4.3% across active valuation models. If you prioritize conservative baseline asset capitalizations, the zero-growth Earnings Power Value (EPV) floor of $121.82 represents a strong baseline safety net. On the other hand, the 10,000-simulation Bayesian DCF target of $78.90 reflects the fair value accounting for margin progression and long-term cash flow compound potential.
With a Quality of Company (QOC) score of 8.36/10 and a Value Trap Score of 0.0/100, DIS's financial risk metrics provide deep structural insights. A Value Trap Score of 0.0/100 suggests that the company is currently safely insulated from immediate financial distress, operational structural decline, or a permanent loss of capital, debt distress, or structural operational decline. Meanwhile, the durable moat score (QOC) of 8.36/10 indicates the level of physical, structural, or brand competitive advantage the company retains. At $104.18, the margin of safety should be carefully compared to these fundamental indicators.