Industry: N/A | Current Spot Price: $1,003.69
Moats, margins, and financial health stress-test index.
Risk level of value trap traps, structural declines, or debt strain.
Consensus fair value margin of safety across all active models.
| Valuation Model Variant | Price Target | Upside / Downside% | Model Confidence% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Power Value | $178.72 | -82.19% | 75.8% |
| Bayesian DCF | $278.98 | -72.20% | 67.9% |
| Markov DDM | $874.35 | -12.89% | 59.4% |
| Dynamic Net Asset Value | $20.39 | -97.97% | 55.2% |
| First Chicago | $677.36 | -32.51% | 59.4% |
| EROIC Spread Model | $190.24 | -81.05% | 63.7% |
| Machine Learning RIV | $507.88 | -49.40% | 55.2% |
| Regime Cross model | $262.21 | -73.88% | 46.7% |
| Sentiment SOTP | $298.52 | -70.26% | 46.7% |
| CUCE Ensemble Model | $449.94 | -55.17% | 14.8% |
| FTNN Topology Model | $922.11 | -8.13% | 6.6% |
| RCMH-DCF Variant | $492.46 | -50.94% | 55.2% |
Determining if Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is worth buying in 2026 requires contrasting its current market spot price of $1,003.69 with our fundamental intrinsic value targets. Our quantitative models suggest that the consensus fair value upside for COST sits at -52.3% across active valuation models. If you prioritize conservative baseline asset capitalizations, the zero-growth Earnings Power Value (EPV) floor of $178.72 represents a strong baseline safety net. On the other hand, the 10,000-simulation Bayesian DCF target of $278.98 reflects the fair value accounting for margin progression and long-term cash flow compound potential.
With a Quality of Company (QOC) score of 9.81/10 and a Value Trap Score of 6.0/100, COST's financial risk metrics provide deep structural insights. A Value Trap Score of 6.0/100 suggests that the company is currently safely insulated from immediate financial distress, operational structural decline, or a permanent loss of capital, debt distress, or structural operational decline. Meanwhile, the durable moat score (QOC) of 9.81/10 indicates the level of physical, structural, or brand competitive advantage the company retains. At $1,003.69, the margin of safety should be carefully compared to these fundamental indicators.