Industry: N/A | Current Spot Price: $271.85
Moats, margins, and financial health stress-test index.
Risk level of value trap traps, structural declines, or debt strain.
Consensus fair value margin of safety across all active models.
| Valuation Model Variant | Price Target | Upside / Downside% | Model Confidence% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Power Value | $31.17 | -88.53% | 64.8% |
| Bayesian DCF | $157.40 | -42.10% | 51.4% |
| Markov DDM | $174.09 | -34.05% | 76.7% |
| Dynamic Net Asset Value | $42.59 | -84.33% | 52.2% |
| First Chicago | $351.89 | 29.44% | 56.2% |
| EROIC Spread Model | $40.45 | -85.12% | 60.2% |
| Machine Learning RIV | $159.09 | -41.48% | 52.2% |
| Regime Cross model | $126.75 | -53.38% | 44.2% |
| Sentiment SOTP | $165.82 | -39.00% | 44.2% |
| CUCE Ensemble Model | $143.10 | -47.36% | 13.7% |
| FTNN Topology Model | $248.31 | -8.66% | 4.5% |
| RCMH-DCF Variant | $39.22 | -85.14% | 84.7% |
Determining if Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is worth buying in 2026 requires contrasting its current market spot price of $271.85 with our fundamental intrinsic value targets. Our quantitative models suggest that the consensus fair value upside for AMZN sits at -45.2% across active valuation models. If you prioritize conservative baseline asset capitalizations, the zero-growth Earnings Power Value (EPV) floor of $31.17 represents a strong baseline safety net. On the other hand, the 10,000-simulation Bayesian DCF target of $157.40 reflects the fair value accounting for margin progression and long-term cash flow compound potential.
With a Quality of Company (QOC) score of 8.98/10 and a Value Trap Score of 12.0/100, AMZN's financial risk metrics provide deep structural insights. A Value Trap Score of 12.0/100 suggests that the company is currently safely insulated from immediate financial distress, operational structural decline, or a permanent loss of capital, debt distress, or structural operational decline. Meanwhile, the durable moat score (QOC) of 8.98/10 indicates the level of physical, structural, or brand competitive advantage the company retains. At $271.85, the margin of safety should be carefully compared to these fundamental indicators.