Industry: Consumer Electronics | Current Spot Price: $310.85
Moats, margins, and financial health stress-test index.
Risk level of value trap traps, structural declines, or debt strain.
Consensus fair value margin of safety across all active models.
| Valuation Model Variant | Price Target | Upside / Downside% | Model Confidence% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Power Value | $78.29 | -74.81% | 74.4% |
| Bayesian DCF | $132.78 | -57.28% | 66.7% |
| Markov DDM | $110.10 | -64.58% | 58.4% |
| First Chicago | $266.54 | -14.25% | 58.4% |
| EROIC Spread Model | $67.50 | -78.29% | 62.5% |
| Machine Learning RIV | $48.03 | -84.55% | 54.2% |
| Regime Cross model | $239.32 | -23.01% | 45.9% |
| Sentiment SOTP | $103.20 | -66.80% | 45.9% |
| CUCE Ensemble Model | $148.04 | -52.38% | 20.9% |
| FTNN Topology Model | $279.52 | -7.38% | 39.0% |
| RCMH-DCF Variant | $213.64 | -31.27% | 54.2% |
Determining if Apple Inc. (AAPL) is worth buying in 2026 requires contrasting its current market spot price of $310.85 with our fundamental intrinsic value targets. Our quantitative models suggest that the consensus fair value upside for AAPL sits at -46.4% across active valuation models. If you prioritize conservative baseline asset capitalizations, the zero-growth Earnings Power Value (EPV) floor of $78.29 represents a strong baseline safety net. On the other hand, the 10,000-simulation Bayesian DCF target of $132.78 reflects the fair value accounting for margin progression and long-term cash flow compound potential.
With a Quality of Company (QOC) score of 10.0/10 and a Value Trap Score of 0.0/100, AAPL's financial risk metrics provide deep structural insights. A Value Trap Score of 0.0/100 suggests that the company is currently safely insulated from immediate financial distress, operational structural decline, or a permanent loss of capital, debt distress, or structural operational decline. Meanwhile, the durable moat score (QOC) of 10.0/10 indicates the level of physical, structural, or brand competitive advantage the company retains. At $310.85, the margin of safety should be carefully compared to these fundamental indicators.